Com transações transversais e pagamentos internacionais se tornando cada vez mais relevantes para um número crescente de empresas na região, a Western Union Business Solutions (Wubs) fez parceria com a Grande Câmara de Comércio de Birmingham (GBCC) para determinar o impacto da volatilidade da moeda nos negócios que operam o maior número de birmingham. No entanto, as empresas de todo o West Midlands resistiram à tempestade e fizeram grandes progressos ao expandir seu alcance internacional. De fato, a região tornou -se uma potência de exportação na última década e, até o final de 2019, o West Midlands teve um valor total das exportações de £ 31,9 bilhões (pouco menos de 10% de todas as exportações do Reino Unido), a terceira mais alta de qualquer região inglesa. As empresas também tiveram que lidar com as repercussões da pandemia de coronavírus. Das empresas que negociam no exterior, os desenvolvimentos geopolíticos foram citados como sua preocupação predominante na tentativa de moldar sua estratégia de gerenciamento de riscos cambiais. O relatório também revela que a maioria dos exportadores afetados pela volatilidade do FX está tendendo a transmitir os custos adicionais acumulados para sua base de clientes. No entanto, os tempos turbulentos sempre lançam oportunidades e desafios, e agora podem ser um bom momento para as empresas locais revisarem sua estratégia de negócios e explorar a possibilidade de negociar internacionalmente. O comércio global intangível de "serviços"-a troca de conhecimentos, funções de negócios e propriedade intelectual é um elemento crescente e importante do comércio transfronteiriço
In the UK, the last five years have been characterised by political and economic uncertainty. However, businesses across the West Midlands have weathered the storm and made great strides in expanding their international reach. Indeed, the region has become an export powerhouse over the last decade and by the end of 2019, the West Midlands had a total value of exports of £31.9bn (just under 10% of all UK exports), the third highest of any English region.
Nevertheless, the last twelve months have been tough for exporters in the region, with the downturn in global markets particularly pronounced in the automotive sector and of course, businesses have also had to deal with the repercussions of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Against this backdrop, the data gathered for the WUBS and GBCC report is more relevant than ever, as local firms attempt to manage currency fluctuations in a bid to maintain healthy profit levels. Of those businesses that trade overseas, geopolitical developments were cited as their predominant concern in attempting to shape their foreign exchange risk management strategy. The report also reveals that the majority of exporters affected by FX volatility are tending to pass on the additional costs accrued to their customer base.
International trade – growth and opportunity
It was also telling that the majority of the businesses that contributed to this report are not currently exporting their goods and services across the globe. However, turbulent times always throw up opportunities as well as challenges, and now could be a good time for local companies to review their business strategy and explore the possibility of trading internationally.
International trade is not limited to the shipping of goods in containers. The intangible global trade of ‘services’ – the exchange of expertise, business functions, and intellectual property is a growing and important element of cross-border trade
novas ferramentas de tecnologia e comunicação nos tornam mais conectados do que nunca. Hoje, a Wubs estima que os serviços contribuam para mais da metade (55%) de todos os fluxos comerciais globais. Para baixar o relatório Wubs sobre a Revolução dos Serviços Globais, Clique aqui. Isso foi mais prevalente entre as empresas de serviço em oposição aos fabricantes
The Report
Summary Findings
• Just over two thirds of businesses in the region trade in GB Sterling. This was more prevalent amongst service firms as opposed to manufacturers
• Pouco mais de um quarto dos fabricantes expressou preocupações com a volatilidade do mercado em relação ao gerenciamento de riscos de FX
• Des das empresas que sofrem de volatilidade do mercado e apenas um terço das empresas em que a placa foram aprovadas para os custos adicionais para os clientes adicionais || absorvendo custos adicionais em uma tentativa de gerenciar as consequências da volatilidade do mercado
• Just under a quarter of firms across the manufacturing and service sector are absorbing additional costs in a bid to manage the fallout from market volatility
Metodologia do relatório
Um conjunto de perguntas foi incluído na pesquisa de relatório trimestral do Q2 2020 do GBCC 2020, que foi concluída por mais de 850 empresas locais. Desses, 111 se classificaram como fabricantes e 746 operam no setor de serviços. A pesquisa foi realizada entre 18 de maio e 9 de junho durante o período de bloqueio introduzido pelo governo. gerenciamento. No entanto, surgiram diferenças notáveis em relação aos setores individuais, com 27% dos fabricantes observando preocupações com a volatilidade do mercado em comparação com apenas 9% das empresas de serviço. As ansiedades em relação ao comércio internacional e desenvolvimentos geopolíticos (relacionados a questões como o Brexit e as guerras comerciais dos EUA / China, por exemplo), foram particularmente prevalentes entre os fabricantes (28%), no entanto, menos para empresas que operam no setor de serviços (9%). Fabricantes e menos de 1% das empresas de serviço se referiram a isso como um ponto de preocupação. 67% dos negócios em geral negociaram apenas o GB Sterling com a porcentagem consideravelmente maior no setor de serviços (72%) do que no setor de manufatura (41%). Por exemplo, um negócio se referiu ao impacto nas avaliações de ativos no exterior e outro mencionou uma maior ansiedade sobre o aumento dos custos de transação bancária. Taxas de câmbio flutuantes. Um padrão semelhante surgiu dentro dos dois setores individuais, com 38% dos fabricantes aumentando o custo de seus bens e serviços e 33% das empresas do setor de serviços que estão fazendo o mesmo. Pouco mais de um quarto das empresas que operam no setor de serviços estão absorvendo custos aumentados em seus negócios, em uma tentativa de gerenciar as consequências da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio em comparação com 16% dos fabricantes. 12% dos fabricantes tentaram renegociar contratos no exterior como parte de sua estratégia, com 9% das empresas de serviço fazendo o mesmo. Apesar do cenário incerto em que as empresas se vêem operando, poucas empresas em ambos os setoras (7% das empresas de serviço e 5% dos fabricantes) sugeriram que estavam prontos para reconstruir suas políticas de FX em uma tentativa de superar as consequências associadas à volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Apenas 3% das empresas de serviços tentaram mudar para geografias com melhores taxas de câmbio. Além das opções apresentadas na pesquisa, as empresas também se referiram à troca de sua prestação de serviços e ao adiar as decisões de investimento no exterior como respostas específicas ao lidar com oscilações em moeda FX. A saúde da exportação de West Midlands entrará em foco mais nítido. Enquanto isso, o desvio iminente da Grã -Bretanha da União Europeia criará uma incerteza adicional nos próximos meses. Com 26% das empresas classificando a volatilidade da moeda como uma preocupação na pesquisa trimestral de revisão de negócios, é claro que é necessário suporte adicional, especialmente para PMEs. Para as empresas que desejam expandir seu alcance no exterior, uma estratégia clara de gerenciamento de riscos precisará estar em vigor para minimizar qualquer possibilidade da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Embora os mercados tenham sido mais calmos nas últimas semanas, ainda existe o potencial de muita volatilidade e, com isso, a oportunidade de negociar no momento certo e na hora errada. Obter a taxa de câmbio certa no momento certo pode fazer toda a diferença nos resultados finais, e ter uma estratégia de moeda flexível no lugar pode ajudar bastante a mitigar a incerteza que vem com tempos turbulentos. A Western Union Business Solutions é especialista em transações de moeda e mitigação de riscos e está à disposição para ajudar a fornecer às empresas o apoio necessário para entender sua exposição e ajustar seus planos financeiros.
Section I – Managing FX Risk
Participants were asked the following question: What is the biggest worry today in FX risk management for you?
In total, 14% of businesses across both sectors combined cited the timing of trades and market volatility as the primary concern in relation to FX risk management. However, notable differences emerged in relation to the individual sectors with 27% of manufacturers noting concerns over market volatility compared to only 9% of service firms. Anxieties in relation to international trade and geopolitical developments (relating to matters such as Brexit and US / China Trade Wars for example) were particularly prevalent amongst manufacturers (28%) however, less so for businesses operating in the services industry (9%).
Concerns related to regulatory or reporting requirements (relating to matters such as Hedge Accounting or European Market Infrastructure Regulation) were non-existent amongst manufacturers and fewer than 1% of service firms referred to this as a point of concern. 67% of business across the board only traded in GB Sterling with the percentage considerably higher in the service sector (72%) than in the manufacturing sector (41%).
4% of businesses referred to other concerns beyond the options they were initially presented with. For example, one business referred to the impact on overseas asset valuations and another mentioned greater anxiety over increasing banking transaction costs.
Section II – Responding to Currency Volatility
Participants were asked the following question: How would you respond to currency volatility?
In total, 34% of firms suggested they were passing on costs to their customers as they attempted to respond to fluctuating exchange rates. A similar pattern emerged within the two individual sectors with 38% of manufacturers raising the cost of their goods and services and 33% of service sector businesses doing likewise. Just over a quarter of firms operating in the service industry are absorbing increased costs within their business in a bid to manage the fallout from exchange rate volatility compared to 16% of manufacturers. 12% of manufacturers have attempted to re-negotiate overseas contracts as part of their strategy with 9% of service firms doing the same.
Reshaping their FX Hedging strategy (with a particular focus on reviewing the percentage of currency being hedged or reviewing the duration of the hedging strategy) proved to be a more common approach amongst manufacturers (14%) as opposed to only 5% of service sector businesses. Despite the uncertain landscape that businesses find themselves operating in, few firms in either sector (7% of service firms and 5% of manufacturers) suggested they were ready to redevelop their FX policies in a bid to overcome the fallout associated with exchange rate volatility. Only 3% of service companies had attempted to switch to geographies with better exchange rates. Beyond the options which were presented in the survey, businesses also referred to switching their service provision and delaying overseas investment decisions as specific responses in dealing with FX currency swings.
Conclusions – Support Needed for Local Businesses
Over the next few months, as the region emerges from the most unprecedented crisis witnessed in a generation, and businesses attempt to adapt to the post-lockdown landscape, the export health of the West Midlands will come into sharper focus. Meanwhile, Britain’s impending departure from the European Union will create further uncertainty in the coming months. With 26% of businesses ranking currency volatility as a concern in the Quarterly Business Review Survey, it is clear that additional support is needed, especially for SMEs.
In fluid market conditions, there is an increased need for specialist international payment and FX services. For those businesses looking to expand their overseas reach, a clear risk management strategy will need to be in place to minimise any potential fallout from exchange rate volatility.
This period of instability and uncertainty is the perfect time for businesses to put plans into place when it comes to currency exposure. Although markets have been calmer in recent weeks, there is still the potential for a great deal of volatility and with that, the opportunity to trade at the right time as well as the wrong time. Getting the right exchange rate at the right time can make all the difference to the bottom line, and having a flexible currency strategy in place can go a long way towards mitigating the uncertainty that comes with turbulent times. Western Union Business Solutions is a specialist in currency transactions and risk mitigation, and is on hand to help provide businesses with the support they need to understand their exposure and adjust their financial plans.
With the support of Western Union Business Solutions, any business owner can be in control of their international payments and make sound, informed decisions to help manage the effects of currency fluctuations.
According to Hedging Director, Alex Lawson from Western Union Business Solutions,
“There may well be no return to the status quo ante, for better or worse, so any business must plan ahead for all eventualities. The government’s recent dossier set out a potential roadmap, but progress could be stymied at any point by another flare up of the virus. So, while welcome, it can only do so much to reduce the uncertainty faced by businesses in the UK. As such, any plan will need to consider a range of potential outcomes based on probable impact to your industry.”
Western Union Business Solutions can assist you with the solutions you need to access over 130 currencies around the world. Our extensive global network spanning over 200 + countries and territories, combined with our knowledge of local markets can help enable you to manage international payments simply and efficiently. Additionally, in combination with our strategies, tools and solutions, we can work together to help protect your business from foreign currency fluctuations and help you to make sound business decisions.
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This article first appeared on https: //business.westernunion.com/en-gb/blog/analysis-of-the-impact-of-exchange--rate-volatility-on-reater-birmingham-business
