Escrevendo este blog na quinta-feira à tarde, estou tendo que fazer algumas suposições sobre quais serão os resultados do conselho local e das eleições de prefeito. Eu também acho que o trabalho ganhará controle de conselhos como Dudley e Hartlepool - de fato, eu esperaria que os conservadores perdessem cerca de 400 assentos da autoridade local, a maioria, embora não todos, trabalhem. No entanto, a graça salvadora dos conservadores pode ocorrer em algumas concursos de prefeito, cujos resultados não conheceremos até sábado de manhã. No West Midlands, em um concurso muito mais próximo, o atual prefeito Andy Street, indo para seu terceiro mandato, poderia muito bem alcançar um improvável chapéu de vitórias. Como ele procura reeleição. Street, que venceu por uma margem muito mais apertada há quatro anos, seria brinde. Para o Partido Tory, e menos ainda para Sunak e seu governo. De fato, Houchen e Street fizeram o máximo possível para se distanciar da marca conservadora ao longo de suas respectivas campanhas. defenderam mais devolução e prefeitos poderosos por anos do que para o governo. Isso coloca um vento extra nas velas dos devolucionistas- e colocará o medo de Cristo em muitos mandarins de Whitehall!
I am confident in predicting a Labour gain from the Tories in the Blackpool South by-election. I also think Labour will gain control of councils such as Dudley and Hartlepool – indeed, I’d expect the Conservatives to lose around 400 local authority seats, most, though not all, to Labour.
All this is bad news for Rishi Sunak and the government. However, the saving grace for the Tories could come in a couple of mayoral contests, the results of which we will not know until Saturday morning.
In Tees Valley, Conservative incumbent Ben Houchen – who won the mayoralty with a whopping 75% of the vote back in 2020 – should hold his position. In the West Midlands, in a much closer contest, the current mayor Andy Street, going for his third term of office, could well achieve an unlikely hat-rick of victories.
Even with the thumping majority Houchen is sitting on, there is little doubt that in ordinary circumstances, with Labour 20% ahead in national polls, and expecting to make huge gains across the North East in a General Election, he would be in ‘squeaky bum’ territory as he seeks re-election. Street, who won by a much tighter margin four years ago, would be toast.
However, devolution and the emergence of mayors as political champions of their city-regions, and big political personalities in their own right, actually means that both of them could well win a further term in office.
No doubt Conservative central office will be popping the champagne corks if one or both men win, but in reality, their success owes little to the Tory Party, and even less to Sunak and his government. Indeed, both Houchen and Street have done as much as they possibly can to distance themselves from the Conservative brand throughout their respective campaigns.
Indeed, Andy Street carried an endorsement in his eve of poll literature from former PM Boris Johnson – a kick in the goolies for his successor but one if ever there were one.
The fact is that the success of Houchen and Street is much better news for those like me who have advocated more devolution, and powerful mayors, for years, than it is for the government.
The march of mayors continues – ten will be in situ after the weekend – and it is clear from this set of polls that big regional political beasts, seen as having genuine influence by the electorate, can shake off the woes of their national colleagues, and still have a chance of an election victory. That puts extra wind in the sails of devolutionists- and will put the fear of Christ up many Whitehall mandarins!
Um ponto final nas pesquisas locais. Tente evitar a rotação e o ruído das partes. Veja o que o swing nacional é em todo o país, e isso dirá se as previsões de pesquisa que estão indicando um deslizamento de terra nas próximas eleições gerais é provável ou não. Em termos de outros assentos de prefeito para ficar de olho - veja York e North Yorkshire, o East Midlands, e observe o quão grande ou pequeno, a maioria de Sadiq Khan está em Londres. Downtown in Business
