"Se foi feito quando for feito, então é bem que foi feito lentamente" ... para citar mal o Macbeth de Shakespeare. Muitos muitos são brindes e oram em auxílio votos anteriores de não confiança em Margaret Thatcher e Theresa May, que falharam, mas levaram à sua morte logo depois. Norman Lamont foi demitido quando o chanceler e Michael Portillo estava sendo promovido sucessivamente por John Major. O secretário galês John Redwood renunciou a lutar e perder. Atrodertado pelos rebeldes da UE certamente, mas ele ficou no cargo exatamente pelo período ainda disponível para o atual primeiro -ministro. Muitos entraram nas caudas de Johnson e ficam agradecidas ou esperançosas de que ele possa ganhar novamente. Enquanto isso, e esse cenário? Incrivelmente derrota no Wakefield e Tiverton pelas eleições já é esperado, então o choque é dissipado. Depois, temos o inquérito de padrões sobre se ele conscientemente enganou o Parlamento. Não espero que o comitê conclua que ele fez e de qualquer maneira que Downing Street tenha se recusado a confirmar que ele deixaria se considerado culpado. Se o governo puder controlar isso, suas chances de sobrevivência aumentam. Reflita sobre a relação entre o monarca e seus quatorze primeiros ministros. Os próximos três líderes conservadores, Eden, Macmillan e Home, a viram se estabelecer no trono. Toda a evidência era que a rainha se deu bem com Harold Wilson, menos com o Ted Heath bastante rígido. Wilson fez um retorno bem -vindo, seguido por Jim Callaghan antes do emparelhamento da rainha com a primeira mulher -ministra da Grã -Bretanha. Por todas as contas, era um relacionamento difícil. John Major teve que lidar com o divórcio do príncipe de Gales e da princesa Diana diante do novo primeiro -ministro, Tony Blair, teve que lidar com o momento mais difícil da rainha apenas meses depois de entrar no cargo.
The Conservative rebels moved too fast and have now given the Prime Minister a possible path to fighting the next election. Many think he is toast and pray in aid previous votes of no confidence in Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May which failed but led to their demise soon after.
However, in 1990 Michael Heseltine was a clear alternative to Thatcher as was Johnson to May in 2019. I prefer to look at the John Major case in 1995. When he called a vote of confidence in himself, there was no really credible alternative. Norman Lamont had been sacked as Chancellor and Michael Portillo was being successively promoted by John Major. The Welsh Secretary John Redwood resigned to fight and lost.
John Major then continued as Prime Minister for two years. Battered by EU rebels certainly, but he stayed in office for exactly the period still available to the current Prime Minister.
It is, of course, possible that forces will gather again to oust Johnson, but it is noticeable that relatively few Tories in the North West have joined the rebels. Many got in on Johnson’s coat tails and are either grateful or hopeful that he can win again. Meanwhile how about this scenario? Incredibly defeat in the Wakefield and Tiverton by elections is already expected, so the shock is dissipated. Then we have the Standards inquiry into whether he knowingly mislead parliament. I don’t expect that committee to conclude that he did and anyway Downing Street has reportedly declined to confirm that he would quit if found guilty.
What is more important than party gate and by elections in determining Johnson’s future is the cost of living. If the government can get a handle on that then his chances of survival increase.
By going early, the rebels have possibly saddled themselves with a leader weighed down by scandal with the possibility of losing an eighty-seat majority in 2024.
THE QUEEN’S PRIME MINISTERS
The political infighting broke out the day after the nation united to celebrate the Queen’s service and it led me to reflect on the relationship between the monarch and her fourteen Prime Ministers.
She began with Winston Churchill who was charmed by the young Queen. The next three Tory leaders, Eden, Macmillan, and Home saw her establish herself on the throne.
It is often presumed that the monarch struggles with Labour Prime Ministers. All the evidence was that the Queen got on well with Harold Wilson, less so with the rather stiff Ted Heath. Wilson made a welcome return followed by Jim Callaghan before the pairing of the Queen with Britain’s first woman Prime Minister. By all accounts it was a difficult relationship. John Major had to handle the divorce of the Prince of Wales and Princess Diana before the new Prime Minister, Tony Blair, had to handle the Queen’s most difficult moment only months after coming into office.
He had to persuade the Queen to come from Scotland and share the nation’s grief after the death of Diana having called her the People’s Princess.
Brown, Cameron, e May seguiu antes do atual primeiro -ministro assumir o cargo. Nunca devemos esquecer a posição que ela foi colocada no parlamento pravio quando a tempestade da UE estava no auge no outono de 2019. O fato de ter sido posteriormente considerado uma jogada ilegal, deve ter deixado a rainha se perguntando o que teria acontecido se ela tivesse recusado a prorrogação. A imparcialidade impecável da rainha é algo pelo qual todos devemos ser gratos.
