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= Por Martin Liptrot

por semana na América | 1 de novembro de 2024

Finalmente, a eleição dos EUA está aqui. Nesta semana, Martin analisa os vencedores e perdedores da campanha, esportes americanos e mercado de ações ...

Política

A palavra F está de volta à política. Recordando os tempos que ele declarou '

Presidential hopeful and current front runner Donald Trump stands accused by his former chief of staff and his ex-head of the military of being a fascist.

And Trump’s former top aides supported their claim by recalling the times he declared ‘ Hitler fez alguns bons' e como o bilionário americano que virou político desejava ' Os bons generais, como o hitler. Propagandistas e apologistas, garotos orgulhosos, anti -semitas, comediantes racistas, evangelistas de fogo e enxofre - em um evento político, como os Estados Unidos não viram desde o infame fascista alemão americano rally de 1939 no mesmo local. Talvez seja uma alegação muito grande de compreender. Talvez eles acreditem que isso não poderia acontecer aqui, não na terra dos livres, ou talvez eles achem, mesmo que isso aconteça, não me afeta - eu não sou gay, não sou socialista, não sou judeu, eles não virão para mim. que tocavam em seus medos e disseram que não era culpa deles, a culpa estava com outras pessoas-usando a linguagem codificada de branqueamento de cão para evocar espectros de '

So, it was enlightening and frightening in equal measure to see Trump take the stage at Madison Square Garden this week with a cast of propagandists and apologists, proud boys, antisemites, racist comedians, fire and brimstone evangelists – in a political event the likes of which America hasn’t seen since the infamous fascist German American Bund rally of 1939 in the same venue.

But is the message getting through to Americans?

Perhaps the word fascist doesn’t resonate with them. Perhaps its just too big of a claim to comprehend. Perhaps they believe it couldn’t happen here, not in the land of the free, or perhaps they reckon, even if it does, it doesn’t affect me – I’m not gay, I’m not a socialist, I’m not a Jew, they won’t come for me.

Citizens in 1930’s Germany failed to acknowledge the same threat.

Back then, disgruntled by a broken political system which made them feel they were losing out, they entertained a populist who played on their fears and told them it wasn’t their fault, the blame lay with others – using coded dog-whistle language to conjure up spectres of ‘ elites sombrias', ' os invasores' | Parece familiar? and ‘the enemy within’. Sound familiar?

Os americanos já conhecem as inclinações de Trump para a ditadura e a autocracia. Em vez disso, ele prendeu os personagens na margem da política e procurou amizades e relacionamentos com os líderes de regimes despóticos como a Rússia e a Coréia do Norte. E que recompensas e riquezas isso pode trazer para ele e sua família. Suas instruções e incentivos em 6 de janeiro de 2021 foram sobre esse poder, qualquer que seja o custo. Em vez disso, sua principal motivação é usar o privilégio presidencial e perdoar-se para escapar das consequências penais dos crimes dos quais foi condenado e os impeachments que recebeu. Nosso estado de direito que ele ameaça apenas garantir sua liberdade.

During his presidency, he distanced himself from the global networks and institutions which have supported America’s position as head of the western world, the largest free market economy, and have sustained an enduring peace. Instead, he cosied up to characters on the fringe of politics and sought out friendships and relationships with the leaders of despotic regimes like Russia and North Korea.

Trump, it seems, has a ‘hard man’ fantasy which he sees and admires in the likes of Putin and Kim Jong Un.

Trump shares their selfish desire for power and what rewards and riches it can bring for him and his family. His instructions and encouragements on Jan 6th 2021 were about clinging on to that power, whatever the cost.

That self-interest is evident once again in Trump 2024.

He is not motivated to make a difference for working Americans, to grow America’s influence in the world, or to offer support to those fighting oppression in far-away lands like Ukraine or Taiwan. Instead, his primary motivation is to use Presidential privilege and pardon himself to escape the penal consequences of the felonies of which he has been convicted and the impeachments he has received.

The price we will all pay to save his skin is the side deals he is willing to construct with extremist groups, the trade-offs with big businesses and foreign governments he is pledging, or the abandonment of civil liberties, democratic institutions, and our rule of law which he threatens just to secure his freedom.

Esses avisos não são apenas da esquerda e liberal. Nos últimos dias, a família Bush, Dick Cheney e Arnold Schwarzenegger pediram aos americanos a rejeitar Trump. World Series ontem à noite. E para esfregar sal nas feridas, eles venceram no Yankees Stadium. Isso é um pouco como o United pegando a Premier League em Anfield. Essas duas franquias eram originalmente o Brooklyn Dodgers e o New York Giants - lar de Jackie Robinson, que quebrou a barreira de cores do beisebol, e Willie Mays e Bobby Thompson respectivamente. fãs. Bem, até você se lembrar do Arsenal, se mudou de sua base de Woolwich do sul de Londres para o norte de Londres e, mais recentemente, a mudança de Wimbledon para Milton Keynes. A organização Raiders da NFL está baseada em Oakland, Los Angeles e agora Las Vegas na última década ou duas sozinhas. O que acontece com seus fãs? Eles continuam aplaudindo por seus heróis apenas a milhares de quilômetros de distância? Perspectiva. Enquanto o orçamento do governo do Reino Unido causou ondulações de preocupações na comunidade empresarial doméstica, o impacto das eleições presidenciais da próxima semana está sendo especulado pelos comerciantes de dinheiro do mundo e bolsas de valores. de. Na Casa Branca. Drill '

Voters of all political persuasions must seriously consider their choices on November 5th – Does Donald Trump, a convicted felon, truly represent what they and this nation represents?

Sport

Speaking of winners and losers, the Dodgers won the World Series last night. And to rub salt in the wounds they won it in Yankees Stadium. That’s a bit like United picking up the Premier League at Anfield.

The LA Dodgers and near neighbours San Francisco Giants hold a special place in hell for a lot of older baseball fans in New York. These two franchises were originally the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants – home to Jackie Robinson who broke baseball’s colour barrier, and Willie Mays and Bobby Thompson respectively.

But because franchises are exactly that, they both upped sticks from Gotham in the late 50’s and settled in California instead.

This, of course, is anathema to British sports fans. Well until you recall Arsenal famously moved from their South London Woolwich-base to North London and more recently Wimbledon’s switch to Milton Keynes.

But franchises in American sport move frequently. NFL’s Raiders organisation have been based in Oakland, Los Angeles and now Las Vegas in the last decade or two alone. What happens to their fans? Do they carry on cheering for their heroes only from thousands of miles away?

This season the Cleveland Browns are again reported to be considering leaving, having had their previous plan to move to Baltimore leading to riots in the streets and the NFL commissioners granting the Maryland city an expansion side of its own to scupper the move.

It puts Everton’s move from the Old Lady at Goodison into perspective.

Business

Winning and Losing is alive and kicking in the US stock market too. While the UK government’s budget caused ripples of concerns in the domestic business community, the impact of next week’s Presidential election is being speculated on by the World’s money traders and stock markets.

Polymarket, one of a number of firms who track market sentiment, are suggesting Trump winning is the most likely expected outcome amongst traders and that has been baked in to market conditions.

Sort of.

With only a 65% expectation of a Trump win, there is still room for that to change and therefore, unconventionally, a Harris win – effectively the incumbent in this race – could be the one which triggered change and a stock scramble.

The preferred result, if you study market performance in election cycles, is a split Congress – one side taking the House the other the Senate, and a Democrat in the White House.

While market watchers and business voices believe Trump is likely to be more ‘business friendly’ with lower taxes and weaker or fewer regulatory controls, they are nervous about his appetite for tariffs and the chaos that can unleash on numerous sectors, supply chains and corporate earnings.

If Trump wins ‘Drill Baby Drill’ seria seu mantra, um movimento que poderia ver os provedores de energia surgirem à medida que as novas reservas de combustível fóssil eram batidas, embora prejudicassem as principais multinacionais que superam os investimentos em seus serviços de energia. Todos os analistas concordam, não se concentram na política, é a posição do Federal Reserve e não o Tesouro que ditará a futura prosperidade econômica da América. E é aí que há sérias preocupações sobre Trump. Sua intenção percebida de se inserir na tomada de decisão do Fed nas taxas de juros trará um senso indesejado de concessão política ao processo de gerenciar a economia do país. Sob Harris ou Trump, a demanda global por dados, marcas e inovação continuará e, atualmente, ninguém pode manter uma vela para a capacidade dos negócios dos EUA de entregar isso em escala e a longo prazo.

If Harris succeeds, then electric vehicle manufacturers, battery and green energy companies are likely to be winning plays on her watch.

But analysts all agree, don’t focus on the politics, it is the stance of the Federal Reserve not the Treasury which will dictate America’s future economic prosperity. And that is where there are serious concerns about Trump. His perceived intention to insert himself into the Fed’s decision making on interest rates, will bring an unwanted sense of political expedience into the process of managing the nation’s economy.

Me?

I’m going to bet that whoever wins the election, the US economy and its powerhouse brands and businesses will continue to drive markets upwards. Under Harris or Trump, global demand for data, brands and innovation will continue and, currently, no-one can hold a candle to US business’s ability to deliver that at scale and for the long term.

, mas será uma semana interessante pela frente.

Author picture

Martin Liptrot

Martin Liptrot é um consultor de assuntos públicos, relações públicas e marketing que trabalha com clientes do Reino Unido, EUA e Global para tentar e "fazer boas idéias acontecer".

= Downtown in Business

Uma semana na América | 20 de fevereiro de 2025

Como os primeiros 30 dias de seu segundo mandato de Donald Trump, quando o Presidente chegou ao fim, Martin olha para a enxurrada de ordens executivas, os desafios constitucionais que representam e o que são os democratas - ou não estão - fazendo ... Leia mais

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