SO, 4 de julho th IS É. Dia da Independência. Vote. Há estabilidade nisso, é - citar Donald Rumsfeld, um 'conhecido'.
2024 was always the year of the two big general elections on both side of the pond, but for a Trans-Atlantic hack like me, it is great that the future of Britain will be decided on US Independence Day.
But it was a curious announcement, and many of my political partners and colleagues are trying to work out why Sunak called it?
One of the big differences between US and UK Elections is the former is a fixed term, the President, his opponents, businesses, and citizens all know that every five years, on the Tuesday after the first Monday of November, there will be a vote.
For those working in the administration, the mammoth lobbying sector, fundraisers, and policy wonks – all have a timetable to work towards. There is stability in that, it is – to quote Donald Rumsfeld, a ‘known known’.
As eleições do Reino Unido são diferentes. Embora ainda seja um parlamento de cinco anos, há flexibilidade. Para este parlamento atual, essa data teria sido 17 de dezembro de 2024.
The latest a Parliament can be dissolved for a general election is on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met. For this current Parliament, that date would have been 17 December 2024.
No entanto, 25 dias úteis podem se preparar para a eleição para que a próxima eleição possa ter sido realizada até 28 de janeiro de 2025.
e, diferentemente dos EUA, o Primeiro Ministro pode ligar para a eleição em uma hora de sua própria escolha, dentro desse período de cinco anos. Gerenciamento. A recente queda na inflação e uma ligeira melhora nas condições de custo de vida ajudaria seu impulso de competência econômica, e que havia tempo para um possível corte de taxas de juros e um orçamento de outono com uma entrega para os aposentados e proprietários de imóveis em forma de alterações no imposto sobre herança e carimbo. Inglaterra para ter uma bandeira bem -sucedida com o campeonato do Euro 24, um verão quente que nos fez sentir mais felizes,
That is a fantastic tool for election management.
While the independence of the Bank of England stops the Treasury fiddling with interest rates to create favourable pre-election conditions, the machine of government still has many opportunities to set circumstances which give it a boost.
I was pretty convinced Sunak would take that opportunity.
I thought he would wait for the impact of his budget’s National Insurance cut to trickle into people’s pay packets, that the recent fall in inflation and slight improvement in cost of living conditions would help his economic competence push, and that there was time for a possible interest rate cut and an Autumn budget with a give away for pensioners and homeowners in the shape of changes to inheritance tax and stamp duty.
They will also have hoped to see a plane full of refugees leave for Rwanda.
His handlers will also have privately prayed for England to have a successful flag waving Euro 24 championship, a hot summer which made us all feel happier,
mas não. A divisão foi levantada em admiração.
In the pouring rain, against the audio graffiti of Labour’s election anthem, he surprised everyone by calling an election for July 4th.
Voices on both sides of the political divide were raised in wonder.
Por que agora? Retido.
If Sunak wasn’t going to go long and drag this into the Autumn in the hope the above wish list happened or a surprise change in the circumstances occurred, then his other obvious and sensible option was to have gone on May 4th when the local and regional elections were held.
It would have given the thousands of Tory councillors who lost their seats a fighting chance, with heightened turn out and the inevitable narrowing of the polls, Metro Mayor Andy Street in the West Midlands may well have hung on.
Em vez disso, ele deixou esses resultados travarem. Isso deu aos especialistas e psefologistas evidências empíricas de que os conservadores estão um segundo distante para o trabalho de parto. A encenação de mãos de mãos do anúncio-sufocante, afogada por músicas de protesto, ficou por conta própria-a decisão de chamá-lo, que acabou apenas por Sunak poderia ter chamado, era insufatável. Ele e ele tiveram que pular ou ser empurrado. Alguns acham que ele pode realmente acreditar que as coisas estão melhorando, e esta é sua melhor chance de vencer.
That misstep will have further alienated Sunak from the party faithful, the local Conservative Associations, and the legion of supporters you need to run ground operations in a General Election.
These are not the conditions a competent campaign team would have engineered to call an election.
Never mind the cack-handed staging of the announcement – sopping wet, drowned out by protest songs, stood on his own – the decision to call it, which ultimately only Sunak could have called, was unfathomable.
From a political viewpoint it makes no sense, so what was the motivation?
There are a number of stories circulating.
Some speculate the Tory Party was moving to depose him and he had to jump or be pushed. Some think he may actually believe that things are getting better, and this is his best chance to win it.
, mas há uma que se destaca para mim. Propriedade de vários milhões de dólares na Califórnia. - Os termos escolares dos EUA seguem logo após o grande feriado bancário dos EUA - Dia do Trabalho. Downtown in Business
With an election done and dusted on July 4th, the moving trucks can be in Downing Street that weekend and the family and all their possessions can be packed up and shipped back to their multi-million-dollar property in California.
Arriving on the Golden Coast in July would give the family plenty of time to get the kids enrolled in school, take a short holiday, and be ready for their new life.
The great irony in all this? – US school terms follow straight after that great US bank holiday – Labour Day.
