, se não tão super terça-feira, espero que quinta-feira espetacular
ontem à noite, super terça-feira-o dia em que muitos membros do partido em muitos estados escolhem seu candidato preferido para ser presidente-veio e foi. e contra -reivindicações sobre a adequação de qualquer outra pessoa para o melhor emprego. Haley, o único concorrente restante de Big Orange, desistiu. Teria sido inacreditável na terça -feira se a festa tivesse chutado um POTUS sentado.
In previous years, it has been preceded by heated and volatile debate, buckets of dirt throwing, and fringe candidates sparring with the form-favourites in making dubious claims and counter claims about the suitability of anyone else for the top job.
This year, in keeping with the scaled back economy, the continued descent of interest in party politics, and the fracturing of the mainstream media which anyone paid attention to, the day pretty much came and passed without note.
In case you are interested in what happened, on the Republican side, Trump won every state other than Vermont, and Nikki Haley, the only remaining contestant to Big Orange, dropped out.
On the Democrat side, Joe Biden – the incumbent President – was backed in every state contested. It would have been Unbelievable Tuesday if the party kicked a sitting POTUS out.
Então, o que podemos tirar disso? Começa em verdadeiro Amanhã, quinta -feira, com Joe Biden entregando o endereço do estado da União. Não consigo pensar em nada mais prejudicial para a economia dos EUA, o destino de centenas de milhões de trabalhadores de segurança baixa e de baixa segurança ou a estabilidade de um mundo volátil do que o retorno do ex-presidente Trump. do. Os consultores democratas seniores incluem Barrack Obama, ex-assessores de casas brancas, incluindo Jen O'Malley Dillon, Mike Donilon e Chávez Rodriguez e pols estatais sênior como Cory Booker, Gavin Newsom e Wes Moore. Eles ajudarão a moldar e focar a campanha. sobre isso. Vivemos em uma idade muito visual-
In effect, the election starts today. It starts in real earnest tomorrow, Thursday, with Joe Biden delivering the State of the Union address.
And for political networkers and campaign consultants, the job of raising the millions of dollars which fuel what will now be the longest election campaign in US history becomes a priority.
I’m unabashed in saying I’m 100% in Biden’s camp. I can think of nothing more damaging to the US economy, the fate of hundreds of millions of low paid, low job security workers, or the stability of a volatile world than the return of former President Trump.
That said, I’m not 100% confident that Biden will be a great second-term President, but if he can hang on to his faculties, look and sound coherent, he has a job to do.
“President Biden, your mission if you choose to accept it, is to prevent the chaos of Trump II.”
Joe will have good people around him. Senior Democrat advisers include Barrack Obama, ex-White House aides including Jen O’Malley Dillon, Mike Donilon and Chavez Rodriguez, and senior state pols like Cory Booker, Gavin Newsom, and Wes Moore. They will help to shape and focus the campaign.
Whoever is writing the President’s State of the Union address needs to score points on a number of fronts.
First, and by far the most important takeaway – Biden must look and sound Presidential.
The Democrats know their biggest risk is that the voting public don’t believe Joe is up to the job for another four years and no amount of policy announcements will paper over that. We live in a very visual age – Tiktok, Discord, Instagram e YouTube Garner Millions de visualizações em segundos e um deslizamento, uma queda ou uma expressão de vidro que pode ser a imagem definitiva de uma campanha longa. Eleição, defina a batalha e coloca os problemas que os eleitores serão solicitados a decidir na frente e no centro. Evite a linguagem e as banalidades de lã e bem-intencionadas-diga aos eleitores exatamente o que é essa eleição em inglês simples.
Second, the writers have to set the context for this election, define the battle, and put the issues voters will be asked to decide on front and centre. Steer clear of woolly, well-intentioned language and platitudes – tell the voters exactly what this election is about in plain English.
e terceiro, reconheça que muitos republicanos têm dúvidas severas sobre Donald Trump, e ganhando seus votos, ou pelo menos fazê -los felizes o suficiente para sentar este, será enorme. Biden deve possuir isso. A ação que a administração tomou e as difíceis decisões de amor de outras pessoas para reduzir a inflação significava que a redefinição econômica foi bem gerenciada, a lendária pouso suave. "Facilitando seus pagamentos de hipotecas e aumentando ainda mais a confiança do consumidor" - em setembro, o mais tardar.
Writing 24 hours before any speech is delivered makes it a banana skin for forecasting, but here is what I hope to hear loud and clear.
The US economy is robust. Biden must own that. The action the administration has taken and the tough love decisions of others to reduce inflation have meant the economic reset has been managed well, the fabled soft landing.
I want to hear the President say that bringing down interest rates without threatening job security is his policy, that the Inflation Reduction Act – his flagship policy – has prioritised investing in US innovation, securing US jobs, and growing the US economy – and he hopes to see the Fed start to cut rates – ‘easing your mortgage payments and boosting consumer confidence further’ – in September at the latest.
e precisamos ouvir sobre o risco político com tudo isso. Embora não seja presidencial nomear seu oponente, ele pode nos informar o que e quem ele está referenciando. Ele pode pintar a imagem da estabilidade de seu registro presidencial - respeito em todo o mundo, membro das grandes instituições, excepcionalismo americano - vs o caos dos embargos comerciais, desafios legais, interferência russa, a presença militar global. Ele precisa repetir isso novamente nos próximos meses.
Stability versus Chaos.
In 2020, Biden was able to bring together a broad coalition across a number of the battleground states to secure the White House. He needs to repeat this again in the coming months.
Ele pode serScranton Joe to command the support of blue-collar Americans by pledging his support for trade unions, worker’s rights and the continuing on-shoring of jobs. He also needs to retain the strong support and trust he holds with the largest and longest-lasting cohort of Democrat voters – African Americans and people of colour – by acknowledging the ongoing challenges to social justice and the plight of our biggest cities.
Mas as mães do futebol e os pais de churrasco também serão um círculo eleitoral -chave. Suburban, homens com educação universitária e, especialmente, as mulheres são desligadas por Trump e seus votos estão em disputa. Nas primárias ontem, cerca de metade dos eleitores republicanos nos subúrbios de Charlotte, Carolina do Norte, Minneapolis, Minnesota e os subúrbios de DC Beltway como Fairfax, Virginia votou contra Trump. Border.
Understanding their concerns over the economy and issues like crime, education and healthcare are vital too.
And then there is immigration and the Southern Border.
Este é o filho do pôster desta eleição. Atualmente, o presidente não possui a narrativa, mas possui completamente o problema - um lugar terrível para se estar.
With 300,000 people a month illegally crossing, it isn’t hyperbole to say this is a crisis.
And it is a political crisis for the Democrats too. The President doesn’t currently own the narrative but completely owns the problem – a terrible place to be.
Earlier this week, Biden and Trump both visited border towns and spoke very differently about the problem.
Trump culpou Biden e pediu segurança e 'a parede' a ser concluída. Bussing ilegais para Nova York e São Francisco, Crime e o custo para os orçamentos estaduais e o número de comunidades. Em todo o país, compartilhe essa visão também. E para muitos republicanos, é a questão de que precisam ver se devem apoiar Biden se Trump não for do seu gosto. por?
Biden visited refugee processing camps and spoke to aid workers.
Whatever the rights and wrongs are, the imagery was very different and probably favoured the challenger over the incumbent in the minds of many Americans who are already concerned by a never-ending stream of stories about migration, bussing illegals to New York and San Francisco, crime, and the cost to state budgets and the toll on communities.
Biden cannot pretend the issue isn’t his to resolve.
Senior Democrat voices like NYC Mayor Eric Adams have already said the issue will “Destroy New York” and the largely Democrat voting citizens of Gotham agree.
Democrats across the nation share that view too. And for many Republicans it is the issue they need to see real action on if they are to consider backing Biden if Trump isn’t to their liking.
But does an 81-year-old who has had a lengthy political career by virtue of being all-things-to-all-people, treading the path of least resistance, and side-stepping the tough decisions, have the will, energy and appetite to now front policy which he is probably personally challenged by?
É aqui que Biden e os chefes do partido terão que fazer um acordo.
Em troca de entregar o segundo mandato de Biden-ninguém quer ser um perdedor, um presidente de um mandato-Joe terá que cumprir os problemas que seus consultores sabem determinar quem está empossado nas etapas do Capitol em janeiro próximo. acontecer '.
