dinheiro.
É tudo sobre o dinheiro. Finalmente, nos fornecerá dados de empregos. Por qualquer economia que você possa ter, quanta renda está ganhando e o que isso compra. Também é um reflexo de quão estáveis são suas perspectivas de emprego, o impacto em seus custos de moradia e vida e quão feliz esse estilo de vida faz você - o dinheiro não pode comprar felicidade, isso é verdade - mas seria bom tentar. Parece que muitos que não são tão felizes quanto querem ser, estão emprestados para se animar. Coletivamente, carregamos US $ 15trilhões em dívidas pessoais - cerca de US $ 97.000 cada. Dívidas de cartão de crédito, pagamentos de carros, empréstimos para estudantes - opções de dinheiro fácil.
This week was a big one for those with an eye on the U.S. economy.
The week began with big tech earnings announcements, proceeded to give us the Federal Reserve Bank’s views on inflation and interest rates, and finally, will provide us with jobs data.
Whether you are a classically trained economist, a worried investor, or just plodding through working life in the hope of sunnier days ahead – there are a few basic truisms.
Your wealth and, just as importantly, how wealthy you feel is core.
That is influenced by any savings you may have, how much income you are earning, and what that buys you. It is also a reflection of how stable your job prospects are, the impact on your housing and living costs, and how happy that lifestyle makes you – money can’t buy happiness, that’s true – but it would sure be nice to give it a go.
Americans are acutely aware of this. It seems many who aren’t as happy as they want to be, are borrowing to cheer themselves up. Collectively we carry $15trillion in personal debt – about $97,000 each. Credit card debts, car payments, student loans – easy money options.
Existe um dia de acerto de contas? Alphabet, o pai do Google, compartilhou notícias otimistas semelhantes, receita 11%, para US $ 76 bilhões e um lucro líquido 41% mais alto para quase US $ 20 bilhões. A Amazon compartilhará seus números, e será interessante ver se eles sofrem um destino semelhante de não ser capaz de atender às expectativas selvagens. O que estava tendo um bom desempenho, mas devido a uma estranha mistura de eventos domésticos, globais e externos, foi ver o avanço da inflação de preços e salários em velocidade. A inflação é ruim e deve ser reduzida, diz a sabedoria popular. Na última vez em que Powell abordou os mercados, ele congelou sua série de aumentos nas taxas de juros - amplamente interpretada por Wall Street e aqueles que ganham sua crosta especulando no futuro como o precursor natural de um corte iminente de taxa.
The week kicked off with Microsoft telling us their last quarter revenue was $62billion – up 18%, and their net income was $22billion – up 33%. Alphabet, the parent of Google, shared similar upbeat news, revenues up 11% to $76billion and net income a staggering 41% higher to nearly $20billion.
But the market wasn’t happy, good clearly wasn’t good enough.
Or perhaps because everyone had enjoyed the meteoric stock rise over the previous couple of quarters, it was already factored in. Later this week Meta and Amazon will share their numbers, and it will be interesting to see if they suffer a similar fate of not being able to live up to wild expectations.
Speaking of fantastical hopes, poor Jerome Powell, the Chair of The Federal Reserve Bank.
Mr Powell and his board had raised interest rates 11 times over the previous year – a record of hikes unrivalled since 1981. They did this to try and take the heat out of an economy which was performing well but due to a weird mix of domestic, global and external events was seeing price and wage inflation advance at speed. Inflation is bad and must be curtailed, so says popular wisdom.
Fiddling with interest rates – making money more expensive – is the tool of choice. Last time Powell addressed the markets he froze his run of interest rate hikes – widely interpreted by Wall Street and those who earn their crust speculating on the future as the natural precursor to an imminent rate cut.
Mas Powell teve outras coisas em sua mente. Embora ele pareça feliz em ver a inflação tendendo a baixo de seus altos covid de 7% em 2020-atualmente é de 3,4%-ele achou que ainda estava fora dos 2% que espera. Até que ele estava confiante de que a taxa de inflação estava rastreando para atingir esse alvo, ele nos disse que deixaria as taxas de juros onde estão.
Boo! Silvo! - Powell era o vilão da pantomima novamente - um papel que ele nasceu para desempenhar - e os especuladores de mercado que já haviam se adiantado ao esperar inundações de mais dinheiro para a compra de ações, tiveram que recuar um pouco de preços e mercados também caírem.
O Magic Powell está tentando evocar é um 'pouso suave'.
A resposta clássica à inflação desenfreada é projetar uma recessão. Isso equivale a colocar o paciente em coma induzido para realizar uma cirurgia complicada. Mas isso envolve pessoas perdendo o emprego, a paralisação do crescimento dos salários e a confiança econômica, levando um chute.
Powell, ao que parece, quer evitar isso. Boa sorte. Fast. Recrutando programadores, analistas e designers em números recordes há alguns anos-mas agora estão em uma 'era de eficiência', pois aparecem muitos desses boffins super salarados de suas fileiras e deixam outras pessoas que não querem retornar ao escritório. Isso significa para John e Jane Doe? Enquanto o fechamento forçado de empresas e empresas parece improvável-a economia ainda está crescendo-as empresas estão procurando economia de custos. Reembolsos. O ano - as coisas geralmente são positivas. Isso aponta para os preços mais baixos do gás, as compras mais baratas de alimentos e, embora possam não receber esse aumento salarial, seus salários irão mais longe em termos reais. Os entrevistados relataram sentir -se melhor sobre suas perspectivas do que em qualquer momento desde a pandemia Covid. O sentimento do consumidor, relatado pela UOM, saltou 13 pontos mais alto. Eles estão chateados com tudo, desde Biden a NBC e Taylor Swift no momento. Os eleitores raivosos, brancos e de baixa renda e com pouca educação se reuniram com a bandeira de Trump - em parte como um declínio em empregos sindicalizados e o trabalho organizado impactou as lealdades políticas. É mais provável que os eleitores republicanos tenham apenas um diploma do ensino médio-ou menos-e têm mais medo de serem demitidos, mesmo que Biden
His gamble is that by a tweak here, a tweak there, he can bring the jumbo US economy safely down to earth without wrecking the whole shebang. Good luck.
Friday will see the final piece of the economic jigsaw when the Bureau of Labor Statistics – don’t you love the names of these bodies – will deliver its first jobs report of 2024.
Powell had said he anticipated the trends would be good – that unemployment would rise but not to levels which create too much fear amongst the natives.
But not so fast.
January always sees unemployment numbers rise as all those temporary workers hired for the holidays see their contracts end and the seasonal workers in warehouses, stores and restaurants are let go – that gives a bump in the figures.
And we come full circle back to the tech companies who started the story this week.
Many of these big tech firms had been on huge hiring sprees – recruiting programmers, analysts and designers in record numbers just a few years back – but are now in an ‘era of efficiency’ as they trim many of these super-salaried boffins from their ranks and let go others who don’t want to return to the office after enjoying the freedom of remote working.
If that is true, it might go some way to explain the numbers they reported, growing by trimming costs.
So, what does all this mean to John and Jane Doe?
If their job is at risk from automation – or AI – then they should be worried. While forced closures of firms and businesses seem unlikely – the economy is still growing – firms are looking for cost savings.
If they own their own home, let’s hope they took advantage of the super generous 30-year fixed mortgages on offer a few years back – eat your hearts own UK property buyers – and aren’t about to have to refinance from under 2% to nearer 6% – a trebling of their monthly dollar mortgage repayments.
And if they have credit card debts, student loans and other personal debts to manage, more of their disposable income will go on servicing these at higher rates for longer – meaning shopping sprees, holidays, new cars and dinners out may have to be trimmed.
Challenging, but with inflation trending down, the job market tightening but not squeezing, and interest rates likely to start falling later in the year – things are generally positive. That points to lower gas prices, cheaper food shopping and while they may not get that bumper pay rise, their wages will go further in real terms.
American consumers of all political beliefs were interviewed by University of Michigan for their highly regarded survey. Respondents reported feeling better about their prospects than at any time since the COVID pandemic. Consumer sentiment, UoM reported, leapt 13 points higher.
That is unless you are a Trump Republican. They’re pissed about everything from Biden to NBC to Taylor Swift at the moment.
It is worth noting there has been a bit of a reversal in US political bases in recent years. Angry, white, low income, poorly educated voters have flocked to Trump’s banner – partly as a decline in unionised jobs and organised labour has impacted political allegiances.
Democrat voters are now more likely to hold a college degree and are less fearful of losing their jobs the survey finds. Republican voters are more likely to have only a high school diploma – or less – and are more fearful they will be laid off, even though Biden’s On-shoring Programa-trazendo os empregos de fabricação para nós-está forte. O preço da propriedade exponencial aumenta, o que faz você se sentir bem - e estar em empregos mais estáveis com pensões e fundos de estoque que ainda são positivos.
Democrat voters also seem to make up more of the middle class – soccer moms, BBQ dads – who own their own homes and have seen exponential property price rises, which makes you feel good – and be in more stable jobs with pensions and stock funds which are still positive.
Of course, with an election looming, the economy and how you feel about it will be the campaign.
Republicans will be trying to big up what commentators are calling ‘ Vibe-cession ' Onde, apesar de todas as evidências e dados empíricos, você simplesmente não se sente bem com isso-enquanto os democratas tentam apontar para os números e defender um ‘ Vibe Spansion' || 400 to take the heat off their elderly candidate.
We can expect a long campaign of mis-information and counter-lies. Me? I’m off to Walmart – they have a sale on.
