‘Quando a América espirra, o mundo pega um resfriado. '
Este retrabalho do economista austríaco Klemens von Metternich's citações ficou no teste de quase um século e o que há de um século), e, apesar do mundo, o que há de um século e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século) e o que há de um século e o que é o que há de um século e o que é o que há de um século e o que é o que há de um século. As próximas semanas são talvez as mais importantes para a economia dos EUA e, por extensão, o mundo. Também veremos números de relatórios de emprego - números de desemprego - na sexta -feira após as demissões no Vale do Silício e Seattle. Raia. Corte, compartilhe as costas e proteção de dividendos.
But the coming weeks are perhaps the most important for the US economy and, by extension, the World.
We will see the latest earning reports from many of America’s best loved businesses and stock watchers, central banks and anyone with a pension, car loan or mortgage is paying close attention. We will also see Job Report numbers – unemployment figures – on Friday following layoffs in Silicon Valley and Seattle.
Even if you don’t live or do business in the United States, your personal wealth could be impacted by the health of the US economy because of the unrivalled reach and power of the companies and brands which do call America home.
So far in 2023, the main US stock market indices have been on a hot streak.
The DOW Jones has added 20%, S&P 500 is up nearly 18% and the tech sector, which suffered in the recent downturn, has come roaring back as chip manufacturers boom and Google, Microsoft and Meta cut costs and overheads.
But the upcoming reports will show whether the recovery in stock price reflects a positive shift in the wider economy or just structural improvements and cost cutting, share buy backs and dividend protection.
Nos próximos dias, muitas grandes apostas serão feitas. Pode ser um falecido amanhecer, em vez de anunciar o fim do mercado de baixa e o retorno dos touros. Essas duas instituições gigantes estão enviando mensagens muito diversas. O pé deles está firmemente no pedal do acelerador, tentando impulsionar a economia dos EUA rapidamente. Com o pé firmemente no freio, eles estão aumentando as taxas de juros para tentar inflação de abóboras, enfraquecer o mercado de trabalho para diminuir a inflação dos salários e reformular o mercado de títulos onde o artigo de 2 anos oferece um retorno garantido de 4%. Os cidadãos não têm certeza do que fazer.
If investors, both institutional and retail, believe the economy has turned a corner, they may pile into buying stocks which they determine are cheap compared to where they will be in twelve months-time.
But there are many who are warning that the good news on Wall St. so far this year, may be a false dawn rather than heralding the end of the bear market and the return of the bulls.
They will point at the conflict between the US Treasury and the Fed. These two behemoth institutions are sending wildly diverse messages.
The Treasury, the economic department of the US Government, is signing huge cheques and spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure, defence, climate change mitigation, and shoring up the banking sector. Their foot is firmly on the accelerator pedal trying to drive the US economy forward quickly.
The Federal Reserve – the central bank – has a 180 degree view. With their foot firmly on the brake they are pumping up interest rates to try and squash inflation, weaken the job market to slow wage inflation, and reshaping the bond market where 2 year paper is offering a guaranteed 4% return.
As any parent teaching their kids to drive knows, if you are stepping on the gas and the brakes at the same time, something is going to snap!
Understandably, consumers and ordinary citizens aren’t sure what to do.
The banking crisis, with the folding of Silicon Valley Bank, has led to a sort of run on the banks, especially smaller regional banks which are the mainstay of many communities and small-medium sized businesses.
Quando os titulares de depósitos bancários ficam assustados, eles puxam seu dinheiro para fora, o que, por sua vez, deixa os bancos incapazes de fazer empréstimos. Nas últimas semanas, as contas bancárias dos EUA viram mais de US $ 600 bilhões retirados. A menos que todo esse dinheiro esteja em caixas de sapatos ou sob o colchão, ele está procurando uma casa. Outros podem decidir gastá-lo em carros novos, imóveis ou viagens agora que as restrições covid 19 são levantadas, mas deixando-o no banco parece a escolha menos popular. CNBC, CNN e Fox News compartilhando seus conselhos e insights. Ouvindo as opiniões das empresas de viagens e turismo com as quais trabalhamos em todo o sul e sudeste. Eu tenho assistido os hábitos de gastos das famílias de Dallas, Atlanta, Nashville e Houston, que desceram em nossas praias para desfrutar de férias de primavera, e respondi aos variados pedidos que recebemos em nossos negócios imobiliários. Os garçons, funcionários da cozinha, assistentes de vendas e trabalhadores de hotéis estão em falta e no final da faculdade e do ano letivo - no final de maio, no sul - não pode chegar em breve para fornecer o fornecimento de trabalho necessário. Mas as crianças são experientes e não funcionam por nada, para que os custos de mão-de-obra continuarão aumentando. segurar. Nesta época do ano, normalmente estou em campo chamadas de renda média, compradores em potencial de classe média que procuram casas ou apartamentos à beira -mar, mas isso diminuiu significativamente. À medida que o custo dos empréstimos aumentou dramaticamente, o retorno das propriedades de aluguel caiu. O mercado aqui mudou das pessoas que compram '
Short term bonds, money market accounts and, of course, the stock market are obvious places for those savings to rock up. Others may decide to spend it on new cars, real estate or travel now that Covid 19 restrictions are lifted but leaving it in the bank seems like the least popular choice.
So, if the US economy does wobble further, more banks fold, and the axis of Saudi, Russia and Iran restrict gas and oil supplies to push up profits, what is the knock-on effect?
Well, the experts will be out in force on CNBC, CNN and Fox News sharing their advice and insights.
But I’m taking my own poll – unscientific and not to be relied upon as investment advice – but in such wild times, sometime it’s the people we know who know best.
I have been talking to business owners here on the Florida Coast. Listening to the opinions of travel and tourism businesses we work with across the South and South-east. I’ve been watching the spending habits of the families from Dallas, Atlanta, Nashville, and Houston who have descended on our beaches to enjoy Spring Break, and I’ve responded to the varied requests we receive in our real estate business.
Based on what I am hearing, I think the evidence is clear.
Businesses can’t find enough available staff to fill all their slots, especially in the service sector. Waiters, kitchen staff, sales assistants and hotel workers are in short supply and the end of college and school year – around the end of May in the South – can’t come soon enough to provide the labour supply required. But kids are savvy and wont work for nothing, so labour costs will continue to rise.
Firms who struggled to get supplies, merchandise and inventory during the Covid-19 lockdowns are saying the supply chain is fixed and reliable again, warehouses are full, and cash is being freed up for growth rather than tied up in stockpiling goods and supplies.
But big-ticket purchases are on hold. At this time of year, I’m normally fielding calls from middle income, middle class prospective buyers looking for beachfront homes or apartments, but that has slowed significantly. As the cost of borrowing has gone up dramatically, the return on rental properties has slumped. The market here has shifted from people buying ‘ Casas para morar' para ' Casas para alugar' Nos últimos anos e agora é menos atraente. Além disso, os vendedores - condicionados a esperar que as guerras de licitação aumentem seus preços de propriedades sempre para o céu - demoram a aceitar que o mercado mudou, por isso não é realista em suas expectativas, ou seguindo meus conselhos e esperando mais 12 meses para listar. Se você tem um milhão em Greenbacks, talvez a partir da retirada do banco, talvez esteja procurando um lar, literalmente. Os proprietários de lojas estão relatando US $ 20.000, US $ 30.000 até US $ 50.000 em dias de repetição. Divertir -se. Lemsip ainda…
Where there is movement in the real estate market, I am seeing it in ‘all cash’ deals. If you’ve got a million in greenbacks, perhaps from that bank withdrawal, maybe you are looking for a home for it, literally.
And finally, consumer spending and sentiment seems strong – at least amongst the families queuing for pizza, drinks, ice cream and t-shirts, hats and beach paraphernalia in our small town. Store owners are reporting $20,000, $30,000 even $50,000 repeat days in takings.
If the bottleneck in our supply chain is truly over, that removes a huge driver of inflation – too many dollars chasing too few goods.
While the hot property market takes a pause before interest rates return to normal in the coming year, families are still eager to travel and put the money they perhaps squirreled away during lockdown into having fun.
I think these are healthy signs for the economy, especially for airlines, gas companies, credit card companies and discretionary spending on fun stuff like Disney, Lululemon, Nike, Amazon and Apple.
So, are we expecting a big sneeze?
There are some cold winds for sure, but perhaps it’s just living at the beach, I’m not reaching for the Lemsip just yet…
Sante! Downtown in Business
